dallasdude
06-12 12:32 PM
This is my thought process (also referred by Ron G):
July 2007 brought in approximately 500K 485 cases.
We do not know how many cases were pending as of June 2007.
Fiscal year 2007-2008 USCIS used over 140K EB VISA numbers (I think it was around 155K).
Fiscal year 2008-2009 USCIS will use atleast 140K EB VISA numbers
so, 500K - 300K = 200K.
Assuming USICS approval rate is 85%; 75K of 500K are denied.
200K - 75K = 125K EB cases pending from the July 2007 cases.
Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?
So, 150 K plus whatever that was pending as of June 2007.
So next fiscal year, 2009 if USCIS uses the quota 140 K, most or all of the 2007 filings will be cleared. If not EB3 I, definitely EB2 I and C, EB3 ROW will be cleared.
Depending on new filings, EB3 I might retrogress but retrogression might come within 3-4 years instead of current 8 years.
I strongly believe, beginning Jan 2010, dates for EB2 (I and C) will move forward heaps and bounds followed by EB3 ROW.
Good analysis.
Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?
This is the key stat here. It all depends on how many apps that are in the current category now get filed in the next few years. If there are no more new EB applicants, we should see all pending apps to get approved in a year or two max. The 4 current categories now are EB1 ROW, EB1 India/China and EB2 ROW. If there are 140K apps coming in every year from these categories, we'll never see any movement for EB2/EB3. Anybody know the average number of applicants the last few years from these categories? From the recent news, we know that demand for EB1 India and EB1 China has grown substantially. In my opinion, setting a cutoff date for EB1 India/China would be the best thing for USCIS to do now. That will prevent any new visa usage for EB1 India/China and allow EB2 and EB3 categories to catch up.
July 2007 brought in approximately 500K 485 cases.
We do not know how many cases were pending as of June 2007.
Fiscal year 2007-2008 USCIS used over 140K EB VISA numbers (I think it was around 155K).
Fiscal year 2008-2009 USCIS will use atleast 140K EB VISA numbers
so, 500K - 300K = 200K.
Assuming USICS approval rate is 85%; 75K of 500K are denied.
200K - 75K = 125K EB cases pending from the July 2007 cases.
Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?
So, 150 K plus whatever that was pending as of June 2007.
So next fiscal year, 2009 if USCIS uses the quota 140 K, most or all of the 2007 filings will be cleared. If not EB3 I, definitely EB2 I and C, EB3 ROW will be cleared.
Depending on new filings, EB3 I might retrogress but retrogression might come within 3-4 years instead of current 8 years.
I strongly believe, beginning Jan 2010, dates for EB2 (I and C) will move forward heaps and bounds followed by EB3 ROW.
Good analysis.
Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?
This is the key stat here. It all depends on how many apps that are in the current category now get filed in the next few years. If there are no more new EB applicants, we should see all pending apps to get approved in a year or two max. The 4 current categories now are EB1 ROW, EB1 India/China and EB2 ROW. If there are 140K apps coming in every year from these categories, we'll never see any movement for EB2/EB3. Anybody know the average number of applicants the last few years from these categories? From the recent news, we know that demand for EB1 India and EB1 China has grown substantially. In my opinion, setting a cutoff date for EB1 India/China would be the best thing for USCIS to do now. That will prevent any new visa usage for EB1 India/China and allow EB2 and EB3 categories to catch up.
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sss9i
05-24 08:48 AM
Excellent analysis!! and I will agree with you
Thank you
Thank you
SGP
02-16 06:20 PM
Thanks Bhasky25.:)
_____________
If you will be benefited by �I-485 filing without current priority Date�, please vote YES on the Poll.
Then please send an email to ivcoordinator@gmail.com with subject - "I485 filing without current PD - Impacted Member". Include your 1) IV username 2) Email address 3) Ph#, 4) State of Residence, 5)Priority Date so that grassroot efforts can be coordinated. Please refer to the first post on the thread and use the flier,talk to your friends/colleagues to spread the message.We need all members to get involved
Labor is done via perm process and they are now centrally processed (only prevailing wage is state dependent). Your company can apply for it online and you should get a result in 3-4 wks if the case is not audited. Good Luck to you.
_____________
If you will be benefited by �I-485 filing without current priority Date�, please vote YES on the Poll.
Then please send an email to ivcoordinator@gmail.com with subject - "I485 filing without current PD - Impacted Member". Include your 1) IV username 2) Email address 3) Ph#, 4) State of Residence, 5)Priority Date so that grassroot efforts can be coordinated. Please refer to the first post on the thread and use the flier,talk to your friends/colleagues to spread the message.We need all members to get involved
Labor is done via perm process and they are now centrally processed (only prevailing wage is state dependent). Your company can apply for it online and you should get a result in 3-4 wks if the case is not audited. Good Luck to you.
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paragpujara
10-23 09:37 PM
It was very quick approval. anyways Congrats to you and your family. you are free bird now. :)
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knowDOL
05-11 04:35 PM
After having gone through so much, it does no affect me on if the bill passes or fails. If I get GC or not, if I get EAD or not,, I have become a kind of what do you call, a stithapragna as read by Geetha.
ivofindia
08-26 09:29 PM
River Front Harrisburg branch
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TomPlate
07-09 01:35 PM
Is the flower campaign only for people who filed on July 1st and 2nd?
I have not filed yet can I be a part.
I have not filed yet can I be a part.
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Green.Tech
02-23 11:23 AM
Let me guess, you are a pakistani terrorist. Now you are jealous that how come an Indian muslim win 2 oscars? How will you give out your hateful message to other pakistanis terrorists that indian muslims are being torchured, so you have to "save" indian muslims. Too bad, no pakistani got an oscar. I know why, because the terror capital of the world is going down the drain pretty fast.
.
Cool down, Sanju. I am a little surprised to read your flaming post, which buddyinfo didn't deserve. He/she didn't allude to anything that you are talking about. Usually, you write sensible posts. I will leave it at that.
.
Cool down, Sanju. I am a little surprised to read your flaming post, which buddyinfo didn't deserve. He/she didn't allude to anything that you are talking about. Usually, you write sensible posts. I will leave it at that.
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singam
09-07 03:48 AM
US economy is designed this way, everyone will get their own share. No one bothers about optimizing the chain and reducing the cost. If they do that whole economy will collapse. If people started sticking to one marriage and stop taking the divorces, these lawyers will not have work and that portion of economy will collapse. If you have time please watch this video
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4343898391323537541&hl=en
you will know more about US economy.
:D
Awesome lecture by Mr Venkatesh.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4343898391323537541&hl=en
you will know more about US economy.
:D
Awesome lecture by Mr Venkatesh.
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JulyFiler
09-22 02:31 PM
and yes education. The difference between Legals and Ilegals has to be constantly highlighte. Illegals take and take and take from the society. Legals give and give and give.
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reddog
02-23 12:23 AM
“All my life, I had the option to choose between hate and love. I chose love. And that is why I am here today.”
AR Rahman after winning his 2nd Oscar on Feb 22, 2009.
That truly is the thought of an average indian, outside India.
AR Rahman after winning his 2nd Oscar on Feb 22, 2009.
That truly is the thought of an average indian, outside India.
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singhsa3
08-13 06:59 PM
Please feel free to comment or correct any facts.
Fact Sheet: Who's Looking Out for You?
Green Card Visa Numbers Situation
� The GC process involves Labor Certification (2-3 months) + I-140 (0-12 Months) + Wait for priority dates to become current (several years) + security checks (1 month to 2 years) + I-485 processing once priority dates become current (18 months to 3 years).
� Yearly green cards quota for employment based applicants is 140,000. This includes visas for spouses and children. So on an average; it is given to ~ 60,000 families.
� Country visas limit is 7%, with almost equal distribution for EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 plus any unused visas from other countries. Generally speaking, for countries like India, approximately 7000 visas (~3000 families) were being issued every year in each of these categories.
� It is estimated that approximately 500K+ (yes 500K) I-485 applications under skilled worker category were filed between July 2nd and August 17th 2007. Most of these applications were from people of India and China.
� Employment Based Immigration reforms do not find enough support on the senate floors (Failure of SKIL, STEM etc Bills). As a matter of fact, it does not even get enough support to make it debatable, let alone final voting on the bills.
� USCIS is a self-funded organization i.e. it is run on fees it receives and is short on resources.
What do these jargons mean?
� Priority dates will remain retrogressed for several years.
� Those who could not file their I-485 now will now have to waitttttt�..
� Due to resource constraints, security checks may take years.
� Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
� Endless cycle of EAD renewals and Advance paroles.
� For any reason, if any of your EAD gets rejected, you will need to stop working, In other words, need to leave your job.
� You need to be in the same position with same job responsibilities for an indefinite time period otherwise you Green Card application will be rejected.
� EADs are valid for one year and several employers (and rightly so) view it as a temporary permit and hence reluctant to hire you.
� Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
� So virtually you have three options: a) Struggle for several years b) Leave the USA c) Join us.
Fact Sheet: Who's Looking Out for You?
Green Card Visa Numbers Situation
� The GC process involves Labor Certification (2-3 months) + I-140 (0-12 Months) + Wait for priority dates to become current (several years) + security checks (1 month to 2 years) + I-485 processing once priority dates become current (18 months to 3 years).
� Yearly green cards quota for employment based applicants is 140,000. This includes visas for spouses and children. So on an average; it is given to ~ 60,000 families.
� Country visas limit is 7%, with almost equal distribution for EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 plus any unused visas from other countries. Generally speaking, for countries like India, approximately 7000 visas (~3000 families) were being issued every year in each of these categories.
� It is estimated that approximately 500K+ (yes 500K) I-485 applications under skilled worker category were filed between July 2nd and August 17th 2007. Most of these applications were from people of India and China.
� Employment Based Immigration reforms do not find enough support on the senate floors (Failure of SKIL, STEM etc Bills). As a matter of fact, it does not even get enough support to make it debatable, let alone final voting on the bills.
� USCIS is a self-funded organization i.e. it is run on fees it receives and is short on resources.
What do these jargons mean?
� Priority dates will remain retrogressed for several years.
� Those who could not file their I-485 now will now have to waitttttt�..
� Due to resource constraints, security checks may take years.
� Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
� Endless cycle of EAD renewals and Advance paroles.
� For any reason, if any of your EAD gets rejected, you will need to stop working, In other words, need to leave your job.
� You need to be in the same position with same job responsibilities for an indefinite time period otherwise you Green Card application will be rejected.
� EADs are valid for one year and several employers (and rightly so) view it as a temporary permit and hence reluctant to hire you.
� Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
� So virtually you have three options: a) Struggle for several years b) Leave the USA c) Join us.
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swamy
12-11 09:24 PM
i am not sure if any one of you has tried donating blood in the US, i have, and have been refused a couple of time for reasons ranging from
you have been to india too recently, need 12 months of continued presence in the US
to
our records show that last year India had an outbreak of Malaria and unfortunately you mentioned that you were in India then...
right you shouldnt have travelled in the past 12 mths - otherwise its fine. i've done it a couple of times
you have been to india too recently, need 12 months of continued presence in the US
to
our records show that last year India had an outbreak of Malaria and unfortunately you mentioned that you were in India then...
right you shouldnt have travelled in the past 12 mths - otherwise its fine. i've done it a couple of times
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pappu
02-28 03:04 PM
anyone else?
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gsc999
09-22 10:26 PM
Why don't we mail copies of our degree certificates, diplomas and other credentials? They will know who is more educated..Lou Dobbs or us !!!
---
Thanks for your message.
The issue at hand is not to "prove" if you are educationally qualified rather long delays in legal employment based immigration. So sending copies of degree certificates may not convey our message. Also, if we wrap the stoppers in the photo copies of the degrees that might show subtle disrespect to American learning institutions that gave you those degrees. On the contrary, these degrees are to be framed, if you want to. We want positive message e.g. stop reverse brain drain.
Stopper is a good idea because it weaves two ideas very effectively:
- Stop American jobs from off-shoring : use a stopper
- Stop reverse brain "drain" from America to keep America competitive : use stopper
This concept of reverse brain drain is well documented by the recent Kauffman foundation study http://www.kauffman.org/items.cfm?itemID=906
where they mention that 100K high skilled immigrants have left US to go back to India, China and other countries.
---
Thanks for your message.
The issue at hand is not to "prove" if you are educationally qualified rather long delays in legal employment based immigration. So sending copies of degree certificates may not convey our message. Also, if we wrap the stoppers in the photo copies of the degrees that might show subtle disrespect to American learning institutions that gave you those degrees. On the contrary, these degrees are to be framed, if you want to. We want positive message e.g. stop reverse brain drain.
Stopper is a good idea because it weaves two ideas very effectively:
- Stop American jobs from off-shoring : use a stopper
- Stop reverse brain "drain" from America to keep America competitive : use stopper
This concept of reverse brain drain is well documented by the recent Kauffman foundation study http://www.kauffman.org/items.cfm?itemID=906
where they mention that 100K high skilled immigrants have left US to go back to India, China and other countries.
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LostInGCProcess
09-05 02:48 PM
Most people has very misconception about "parole". It is not a free/flexible travel document like visa. As a AOS applicant, one should not leave US till it is approved/denied. One MUST present in US during AOS. The parole is only for any emergency purpose; which is similar to prisioners. As USCIS is flexible, in approving the AP, the people don't realize the travel limitation of AP. They are travelling on AP for vatation/fun etc.. As per law, the AP is not intended for it. The CBP officer was right in asking the legitimacy of the travel. The AP document clearly says it is based on "humanitation" admission to retrun after an emergency travel.
Technically, you are right. But on the other hand, it was at a time when one had to wait at the most 6 months for AOS.
But, for people from India, on EB categories, the wait is not months, its in YEARS. So, its irrational to go by whats written there.
On the other hand: I think we must request USCIS to recognize this underlying problem with EB folks that are primarily from India. They must print an exception on the AP for India and exclude the wording "for emergency purpose only". I don't know if USCIS has the discretionary power to amend minor changes.
Technically, you are right. But on the other hand, it was at a time when one had to wait at the most 6 months for AOS.
But, for people from India, on EB categories, the wait is not months, its in YEARS. So, its irrational to go by whats written there.
On the other hand: I think we must request USCIS to recognize this underlying problem with EB folks that are primarily from India. They must print an exception on the AP for India and exclude the wording "for emergency purpose only". I don't know if USCIS has the discretionary power to amend minor changes.
more...
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sanju_dba
09-27 09:57 AM
We ( myself and my wife ) applied at Texas Service Center , Dallas Lockbox.
- Appiled on Jul 7th
- mine approved on Sep 10th
- wife's approval on Sep 16th
After like
50days - spoke to National service center ( No help )
56 days - wrote an email to the POBox printed on the receipt notice ,explaining about my situation that i have already purchased tickets and need to travel on Oct 8th . Consider this factor under financial loss and expedite, added 4 photos , 2 each., invoice from travel agent, and attached receipt notice copy. ( not sure if that helped ).
later that day - I booked infopass appointment
next day - I saw SLUD on my case.
Sep 10th - I got text ( from the USCIS online profile ) noting approval,
next day - called NSC and asked why my wife's case is not approved yet, they said they will process individually , and it takes upto 30days to receive the AP copy.
but after 3days i got the physical approval. For my disappointment they didnot processed my wife's case along with mine.( we sent together ).
Then we called NSC explaining,but this time i could tell mine was approved and her is still pending and explained to expedite based on financial loss. she accepted it and sent a notice to local office, but also alerted us its discretionary.
On Sep 16 we got approval text message for my wife too.
after 3 days we got the physical copy for my wife, also got the letter in a different envelop about the "Acceptance of expedite process " ( well it was no use, but thats how their systems are inlined ) :eek:
Out of curiosity we were tracking other AP receipt notices ( by altering last few numbers of ours and they showed same receipt dated ) online in case status window. it showed one applicants approval was done and the adjoining applicant was kept pending for few days. after we got my wife's text message, we searched again those other APs and surprisingly all those got approved as well.
My recommendation to others in hurry ,if they crossed 50days , try taking info pass , talk to NSC . just donot leave it at its pace.
- Appiled on Jul 7th
- mine approved on Sep 10th
- wife's approval on Sep 16th
After like
50days - spoke to National service center ( No help )
56 days - wrote an email to the POBox printed on the receipt notice ,explaining about my situation that i have already purchased tickets and need to travel on Oct 8th . Consider this factor under financial loss and expedite, added 4 photos , 2 each., invoice from travel agent, and attached receipt notice copy. ( not sure if that helped ).
later that day - I booked infopass appointment
next day - I saw SLUD on my case.
Sep 10th - I got text ( from the USCIS online profile ) noting approval,
next day - called NSC and asked why my wife's case is not approved yet, they said they will process individually , and it takes upto 30days to receive the AP copy.
but after 3days i got the physical approval. For my disappointment they didnot processed my wife's case along with mine.( we sent together ).
Then we called NSC explaining,but this time i could tell mine was approved and her is still pending and explained to expedite based on financial loss. she accepted it and sent a notice to local office, but also alerted us its discretionary.
On Sep 16 we got approval text message for my wife too.
after 3 days we got the physical copy for my wife, also got the letter in a different envelop about the "Acceptance of expedite process " ( well it was no use, but thats how their systems are inlined ) :eek:
Out of curiosity we were tracking other AP receipt notices ( by altering last few numbers of ours and they showed same receipt dated ) online in case status window. it showed one applicants approval was done and the adjoining applicant was kept pending for few days. after we got my wife's text message, we searched again those other APs and surprisingly all those got approved as well.
My recommendation to others in hurry ,if they crossed 50days , try taking info pass , talk to NSC . just donot leave it at its pace.
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beppenyc
05-11 07:42 PM
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Amy Call (Frist) 202-224-1865
May 11, 2006 Beth Tiehen (Hagel) 202-224-3474
Ken Lundberg (Martinez) 202-228-5957
Andrew Wilder (Kyl) 202-224-4521
Andrea Jones (McCain) 202-224-7130
Wes Hickman (Graham) 202-224-5972
Don Stewart (Cornyn) 202-224-0704
FRIST, HAGEL, MARTINEZ, KYL, McCAIN, GRAHAM, CORNYN
COMMENT ON UNANIMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENT
WASHINGTON, D.C. � U.S. Senators Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) today released the following joint statement regarding the unanimous consent agreement to bring comprehensive immigration reform legislation back to the Senate floor Monday:
�Under the unanimous consent agreement reached today, the Senate will resume the immigration debate next week. Senate Republicans are united in their commitment to an open and full debate on multiple amendments -- just as we have done on other bills of this magnitude like bankruptcy and class action reform. �We are willing to put differences aside so we can get on with the important work to be done securing our borders and grappling with the 12 million illegal immigrants currently living in our country. We are also in agreement that efforts to curtail the debate prematurely will only derail this process. We call on Senate Democrats to allow an open debate and votes on this complex and challenging issue.�
http://www.rnha.org/ImmigrationReformNow/Senate%20Statement%20on%20Immigraiton%20Agreement. htm
May 11, 2006 Beth Tiehen (Hagel) 202-224-3474
Ken Lundberg (Martinez) 202-228-5957
Andrew Wilder (Kyl) 202-224-4521
Andrea Jones (McCain) 202-224-7130
Wes Hickman (Graham) 202-224-5972
Don Stewart (Cornyn) 202-224-0704
FRIST, HAGEL, MARTINEZ, KYL, McCAIN, GRAHAM, CORNYN
COMMENT ON UNANIMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENT
WASHINGTON, D.C. � U.S. Senators Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) today released the following joint statement regarding the unanimous consent agreement to bring comprehensive immigration reform legislation back to the Senate floor Monday:
�Under the unanimous consent agreement reached today, the Senate will resume the immigration debate next week. Senate Republicans are united in their commitment to an open and full debate on multiple amendments -- just as we have done on other bills of this magnitude like bankruptcy and class action reform. �We are willing to put differences aside so we can get on with the important work to be done securing our borders and grappling with the 12 million illegal immigrants currently living in our country. We are also in agreement that efforts to curtail the debate prematurely will only derail this process. We call on Senate Democrats to allow an open debate and votes on this complex and challenging issue.�
http://www.rnha.org/ImmigrationReformNow/Senate%20Statement%20on%20Immigraiton%20Agreement. htm
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waitingnwaiting
05-31 11:10 AM
They fall under EB3. This bill if passed may be of some relief for EB3.
Yes this is EB3 relief bill.
Yes this is EB3 relief bill.
hindichinibhaibhai
03-29 12:37 AM
Guys MY PD is feb 2008. I am recently watching vias bulletins. I am in EB2.
Based on my watching previous visa bulletions ( after sep 2008) I dont see that it makes major difference if you file in EB3 or EB2.
Both are backloged very much and sincearly I dont hope inspite on being in EB2, I will get EAD or GC till 2015.
What are your thoughts, is it worth filing in EB2?
Of course, it is worth it. Go with EB-2 and don't lose hope.
I ended-up in EB3 due to a mistake made by the lawyer back in 2001-2. Of course, we fired the lawyer, when we realized this. I wish I'd switched myself to EB-2 back then. I just didn't know of the possibility until recently, thanks to IV.
Based on my watching previous visa bulletions ( after sep 2008) I dont see that it makes major difference if you file in EB3 or EB2.
Both are backloged very much and sincearly I dont hope inspite on being in EB2, I will get EAD or GC till 2015.
What are your thoughts, is it worth filing in EB2?
Of course, it is worth it. Go with EB-2 and don't lose hope.
I ended-up in EB3 due to a mistake made by the lawyer back in 2001-2. Of course, we fired the lawyer, when we realized this. I wish I'd switched myself to EB-2 back then. I just didn't know of the possibility until recently, thanks to IV.
Caliber
04-03 12:11 PM
<<bump>>
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